Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 15, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara (Abidjan)

Ethiopia
0 - 3
Guinea

Baye (59'), Haile Bitew (60')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Guirassy (16', 23' pen.), Toure (19')
Sow (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Ethiopia and Guinea, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea 4-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Cameroon	3	4	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	0	4
3	Cape Verde	3	0	4
4	Ethiopia	3	-4	1

Guinea

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Last Game: Guinea 4-1 Ethiopia
Saturday, October 12 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	7	9
2	Cameroon	3	-1	4
3	Guinea	3	-1	4
4	Gambia	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.58%) and 1-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.

Result
Ethiopia	Draw	Guinea
31.87% ( 0.02)	29.77% ( -0.01)	38.36% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 42.4% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

35.37% (

0.04)

64.63% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.37% (

0.03)

83.63% (

-0.03)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.94% (

0.03)

37.05% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.15% (

0.03)

73.84% (

-0.04)

Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.36% (

0.02)

32.64% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.81% (

0.02)

69.18% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Ethiopia 31.86%

Guinea 38.36%

Draw 29.76%

Ethiopia	Draw	Guinea
1-0 @ 12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.67% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.96% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.24% ( 0) Other @ 1.81% Total : 31.86%	1-1 @ 13.44% 0-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.76%	0-1 @ 13.54% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.83% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 2.68% Total : 38.36%