Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Ataturk Olimpiyat Stadi

Turkey
4 - 0
Latvia

Akgun (58'), Tosun (83', 90+2'), Akturkoglu (87')
Ozcan (17'), Akturkoglu (63'), Bardakci (64'), Kahveci (84')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Emsis (49'), Ozols (51'), Daskevics (56'), Tobers (64')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Turkey and Latvia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Turkey

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Croatia 0-1 Turkey
Thursday, October 12 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	6	3	13
2	Croatia	5	7	10
3	Armenia	6	-1	7
4	Wales	5	-1	7
5	Latvia	6	-8	3

Latvia

All competitions

Last Game: Latvia 2-0 Armenia
Thursday, October 12 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Turkey	6	3	13
2	Croatia	5	7	10
3	Armenia	6	-1	7
4	Wales	5	-1	7
5	Latvia	6	-8	3

After such an excellent result in Croatia, expectations will be raised even higher in Turkey this weekend, when the Crescent-Stars should book their ticket to Germany with a win. New coach Vincenzo Montella has built up a lot of good will already, so will be keen to retain it by securing a spot at Euro 2024 at the first opportunity. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 72.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 11.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 3-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.46%), while for a Latvia win it was 1-2 (3.35%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.

Result
Turkey	Draw	Latvia
72.44% ( -0.1)	16.19% ( 0.03)	11.37% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 54.48% (

0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.21% (

0.07)

33.78% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.38% (

0.08)

55.62% (

-0.09)

Turkey Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.88% (

-0)

8.12% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.49% (

-0.01)

28.5% (

Latvia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.3% (

0.17)

40.7% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.71% (

0.15)

77.28% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Turkey 72.43%

Latvia 11.37%

Draw 16.19%

Turkey	Draw	Latvia
2-0 @ 10.41% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.84% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.47% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.92% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.47% 4-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 3.16% Total : 72.43%	1-1 @ 7.46% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.21% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.3% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.19%	1-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.45% Total : 11.37%