Turkey will endeavour to return to winning ways in World Cup 2022 Qualifying Group G when they travel to Latvia for Monday's encounter.
The visitors could only draw 1-1 with Norway in their Friday night game, while Dainis Kazakevics's men suffered a 1-0 defeat to the Netherlands last time out.
Match preview
© Reuters
A total of 29 shots were fired during Latvia's clash with the Netherlands - 19 for Oranje and 10 for Kazakevics's side - but the net only rippled once at the Daugava Stadium as the hosts fell to a disappointing 1-0 defeat in front of their own fans.
Davy Klaassen's 19th-minute effort was all that separated the two sides on the day as Latvia's World Cup dream came to a bitter end, with the 135th-ranked nation now unable to push for a playoff place and eagerly anticipating the final whistle in Group G.
Having only claimed one win against whipping boys Gibraltar - as well as draws with Montenegro and Turkey, the latter of which was certainly a notable result - Latvia sit fifth in the group with five points to their name and are unlikely to rise any higher in the little time that remains.
Latvia are still waiting for their first major tournament appearance since Euro 2004 and will be forced to remain patient for that little while longer, as Kazakevics's side now seek to end their barren run of three games without a goal in World Cup Qualifying.
Interestingly, Latvia have conceded fewer goals than their upcoming opponents - 11 compared to Turkey's 14 - but the gulf in class at the other end of the pitch has been evident during the course of qualification.
© Reuters
Clearly still reeling from their catastrophic performance at Euro 2020, Turkey - now under the tutelage of Stefan Kuntz - welcomed Norway to Istanbul in the hopes of claiming just their second win from their last five World Cup Qualifying battles.
Kuntz's first game in charge of the Turks got off to the perfect start as Kerem Akturkoglu took just six minutes to score the opener, but an Erling Braut Haaland-less Norway restored parity before half time as Kristian Thorstvedt's equaliser saw the teams shake hands on a point apiece.
During Senol Gunes's last dance in September, Turkey overcame Gibraltar with ease but were thrashed 6-1 by the Netherlands and could only draw 2-2 with Montenegro - results which have left them third in Group G with 12 points and at risk of missing a fifth World Cup in succession.
With the Netherlands expected to claim first place, Turkey are embroiled in a three-way fight for second spot with Norway - two points clear of the Crescent-Stars - and Montenegro, but a record of one win from their last seven across all competitions is hardly encouraging.
Latvia also managed to hold Turkey to a thrilling 3-3 draw during their most recent encounter in March - the fifth stalemate in a row between the two sides - and it has been 97 years since Turkey's only victory in this fixture during a 1924 friendly.
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Latvia forward Vladislavs Gutkovskis was forced to miss the Netherlands defeat through suspension, but the 26-year-old is available for this one and could displace Roberts Uldrikis at the tip of the attack.
The hosts held their own for large portions against the Netherlands and are unlikely to shuffle the pack too much for this encounter, but Daniels Ontuzans is an option for change on the right for Alvis Jaunzems, who did not enjoy the most fruitful evening last time out.
Meanwhile, Turkey will be boosted by the returns of three players from suspension this week after Caglar Soyuncu, Ozan Kabak and Orkun Kokcu all missed out against Norway.
Soyuncu and Kabak's returns are particularly timely after Serdar Aziz suffered a facial injury on Friday and has been forced to pull out, so the Leicester City man could now partner Merih Demiral in defence.
Kenan Karaman was only brought on for the final six minutes of the clash with Norway but will also miss this game after sustaining a broken finger, but Burak Yilmaz was always going to get the nod up top.
Latvia possible starting lineup:
Ozols; Savalnieks, Cernomordijs, Dubra, Jurkovskis; Zjuzins, Emsis; Jaunzems, Kigurs, Ciganiks; Gutkovskis
Turkey possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Celik, Soyuncu, Demiral, Erkin; Tufan, Ozdemir; Under, Calhanoglu, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz
We say: Latvia 0-2 Turkey
Latvia have proven to be a tough nut to crack for Turkey in years gone by, and the home crowd have every right to dream of a memorable win given their opponents' miserable run of form.
However, the returns of Soyuncu and Kokcu could yet prove pivotal to Turkey's chances of a much-needed three points, and we expect Kuntz to claim his first win with the Crescent-Stars at the second attempt here, but it will be no walkover.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 52.67%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Latvia had a probability of 22.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.07%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Latvia win it was 1-0 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.
