Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 21

Feb 11, 2024 at 2.30pm UK

Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Stuttgart
3 - 1
Mainz

Mittelstadt (45+2'), Leweling (45+4'), Undav (73')
Karazor (82')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ajorque (76')
Guilavogui (84')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Stuttgart and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stuttgart

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: B. Leverkusen 3-2 Stuttgart
Tuesday, February 6 at 7.45pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Stuttgart 2-1 Mainz 05

Despite struggling to pick up wins and score goals this season, Mainz have been defensively secure since Siewert took over in November, only conceding eight goals in his 11 league games in charge. However, they will face the third highest goalscorers in the Bundesliga when they take on Stuttgart on Sunday, and we are struggling to envisage a scenario in which that run of conceding no more than one goal in a game under Siewert does not come to an end for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 56.4%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 21.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.

Result
Stuttgart	Draw	Mainz 05
56.4% ( -0.41)	22.14% ( 0.12)	21.45% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 56.78% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.91% (

-0.18)

42.08% (

0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.51% (

-0.18)

64.49% (

0.19)

Stuttgart Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.24% (

-0.19)

14.76% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57% (

-0.37)

42.99% (

0.38)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.61% (

0.17)

33.39% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.98% (

0.18)

70.01% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Stuttgart 56.4%

Mainz 05 21.45%

Draw 22.14%

Stuttgart	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 6.31% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 5.75% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.9% Total : 56.4%	1-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.93% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.14%	1-2 @ 5.67% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 2.96% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 21.45%