Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 44.46%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.21%) and 2-0 (5.68%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 1-2 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.