Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta4 - 1Fiorentina
FT(HT: 1-0)
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Monza 1-2 Atalanta
Sunday, April 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Sunday, April 21 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina
Sunday, April 21 at 5pm in Serie A
Sunday, April 21 at 5pm in Serie A
We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina (2-2 on aggregate; Atalanta win on penalties)
After Fiorentina dominated the first leg, roles could be reversed this week, as Atalanta are a force to be reckoned with on home soil and the Viola do not travel all that well. Still, two well-matched teams may need a penalty shootout to separate them. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Fiorentina |
41.23% ( 0.04) | 25.56% | 33.21% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
