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Atalanta logo
Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Apr 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Fiorentina logo

Atalanta
4 - 1
Fiorentina

Koopmeiners (8'), Scamacca (75'), Lookman (90+4'), Pasalic (90+8')
Kolasinac (56'), Scamacca (80')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Martinez (68')
Mandragora (43'), Dodo (69')
Milenkovic (53')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Atalanta BC and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Atalanta BC 2-1 Fiorentina (2-2 on aggregate; Atalanta win on penalties)

After Fiorentina dominated the first leg, roles could be reversed this week, as Atalanta are a force to be reckoned with on home soil and the Viola do not travel all that well. Still, two well-matched teams may need a penalty shootout to separate them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 33.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawFiorentina
41.23% (0.037999999999997 0.04) 25.56%33.21% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 55.17% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.27%48.73% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.16% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)70.84% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.55% (0.021000000000001 0.02)23.44% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.54% (0.025999999999996 0.03)57.45% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.07% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)27.93% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.44% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)63.56% (0.032999999999994 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 41.23%
    Fiorentina 33.21%
    Draw 25.56%
Atalanta BCDrawFiorentina
1-0 @ 9.5% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.79% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-0 @ 6.89% (0.008 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.25% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 3.33% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.98%
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 41.23%
1-1 @ 12.11%
0-0 @ 6.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-2 @ 5.6% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.15%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.56%
0-1 @ 8.35% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
1-2 @ 7.73% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 5.33% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.29% (-0.004 -0)
2-3 @ 2.38% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-3 @ 2.27% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 33.21%

How you voted: Atalanta vs Fiorentina

Atalanta BC
75.4%
Draw
12.3%
Fiorentina
12.3%
114
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2024 8pm
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Fiorentina
1-0
Atalanta
Mandragora (31')
Mandragora (55'), Kouame (81')

Miranchuk (29'), de Roon (78'), Scamacca (89')
Mar 18, 2024 12am
Sep 17, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 4
Fiorentina
3-2
Atalanta
Bonaventura (35'), Martinez (45'), Kouame (76')
Parisi (87')
Koopmeiners (20'), Lookman (53')
de Roon (34'), Zortea (65')
Apr 17, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Fiorentina
1-1
Atalanta
Cabral (56' pen.)
Maehle (37')
Oct 2, 2022 5pm
rhs 2.0
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