Coppa Italia | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 3, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
1 - 0
Atalanta

(Atalanta BC win 4-2 on aggregate)

Mandragora (31')
Mandragora (55'), Kouame (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Miranchuk (29'), de Roon (78'), Scamacca (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Fiorentina and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan
Saturday, March 30 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Napoli 0-3 Atalanta
Saturday, March 30 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.94%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 24.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Atalanta BC
51.94% ( 0.19)	23.81% ( -0.41)	24.24% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 54.79% (

1.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.58% (

1.95)

46.42% (

-1.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.3% (

1.8)

68.7% (

-1.81)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.13% (

0.81)

17.86% (

-0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.36% (

1.38)

48.63% (

-1.38)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.7% (

1.25)

33.29% (

-1.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.09% (

1.35)

69.91% (

-1.36)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 51.94%

Atalanta BC 24.24%

Draw 23.81%

Fiorentina	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.58) 2-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 5.57% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.19) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.12) Other @ 3.57% Total : 51.94%	1-1 @ 11.26% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.51) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.14% Total : 23.81%	0-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 6.2% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.14) 0-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.36% Total : 24.24%