Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Al Arabi had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Al Arabi win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Gharafa would win this match.

Result
Al Gharafa	Draw	Al Arabi
45.05% ( -0.29)	22.45% ( 0.15)	32.5% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 66.16% (

-0.5)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.74% (

-0.68)

34.26% (

0.68)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.84% (

-0.77)

56.16% (

0.77)

Al Gharafa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.18% (

-0.37)

15.82% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55% (

-0.69)

45% (

0.69)

Al Arabi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.59% (

-0.25)

21.41% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.59% (

-0.38)

54.41% (

0.38)

Score Analysis

Al Gharafa 45.05%

Al Arabi 32.5%

Draw 22.45%

Al Gharafa	Draw	Al Arabi
2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) 4-3 @ 1% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.98% Total : 45.05%	1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.84% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.12) 3-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.45%	1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.81% 2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.62% Total : 32.5%