Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Arabi win with a probability of 48.46%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 28.21% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al Arabi win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
Al Gharafa	Draw	Al Arabi
28.21% ( -0.14)	23.33% ( 0.02)	48.46% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 60.2% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.03% (

-0.18)

40.97% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.63% (

-0.18)

63.36% (

0.19)

Al Gharafa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.64% (

-0.19)

27.36% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.18% (

-0.24)

62.82% (

0.24)

Al Arabi Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.87% (

-0.02)

17.12% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.65% (

-0.04)

47.34% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Al Gharafa 28.21%

Al Arabi 48.46%

Draw 23.32%

Al Gharafa	Draw	Al Arabi
2-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 28.21%	1-1 @ 10.71% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.13% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.69% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.32%	1-2 @ 9.46% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 7.29% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 5.56% ( 0) 0-3 @ 4.29% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.45% 0-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.05% Total : 48.46%