Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Arabi win with a probability of 50.42%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 25.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Arabi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 0-1 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.