Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Sadd win with a probability of 59.53%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 21.73% and a draw had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Sadd win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.19%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 1-2 (5.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al-Sadd would win this match.