Eredivisie | Gameweek 28

Apr 4, 2025 at 7pm UK

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Heerenveen
3 - 1
Willem II

Nicolaescu (11'), Kersten (32'), Sebaoui (66')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Bosch (75')
Behounek (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Eredivisie clash between Heerenveen and Willem II, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

All competitions

Last Game: Utrecht 2-0 Heerenveen
Sunday, March 30 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Willem II

All competitions

Last Game: Willem II 0-2 Almere City
Saturday, March 29 at 5.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 16.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 1-0 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.

Result
Heerenveen	Draw	Willem II
64.13% ( 0.75)	19.5% ( -0.39)	16.37% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 56.55% (

0.62)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.06% (

1.19)

37.94% (

-1.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.8% (

1.26)

60.2% (

-1.25)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.81% (

0.56)

11.19% (

-0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.3% (

1.2)

35.71% (

-1.19)

Willem II Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.68% (

0.31)

36.32% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.89% (

0.31)

73.11% (

-0.3)

Score Analysis

Heerenveen 64.13%

Willem II 16.37%

Draw 19.5%

Heerenveen	Draw	Willem II
2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 8.9% ( -0.31) 3-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.13) 3-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 2% ( 0.1) 5-1 @ 1.73% ( 0.11) 5-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.09) Other @ 4.36% Total : 64.13%	1-1 @ 9.02% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.19% Total : 19.5%	1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.37% Total : 16.37%