Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 32.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.5%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.