Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for NAC Breda had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest NAC Breda win was 1-0 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.