Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 64.4%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for FC Twente had a probability of 17%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.43%) and 3-1 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.16%), while for a FC Twente win it was 1-2 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.