Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 52.73%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.