Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 37.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
