Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 30.19% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Willem II win was 0-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.