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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 61.02%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 17.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.26%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 17.37% | 21.61% | 61.02% |
| Both teams to score 51.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.27% | 45.73% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.95% | 68.05% |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.16% | 39.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.5% | 76.5% |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% | 14.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.49% | 42.5% |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 1-0 @ 5.32% 2-1 @ 4.73% 2-0 @ 2.45% 3-1 @ 1.45% 3-2 @ 1.4% Other @ 2.03% Total : 17.37% | 1-1 @ 10.26% 0-0 @ 5.78% 2-2 @ 4.56% 3-3 @ 0.9% Other @ 0.11% Total : 21.61% | 0-1 @ 11.15% 0-2 @ 10.77% 1-2 @ 9.91% 0-3 @ 6.93% 1-3 @ 6.38% 0-4 @ 3.35% 1-4 @ 3.08% 2-3 @ 2.94% 2-4 @ 1.42% 0-5 @ 1.29% 1-5 @ 1.19% Other @ 2.61% Total : 61.01% |