Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 63.32%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 15.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.