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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | -32 | 32 |
| 17 | Willem II | 33 | -28 | 30 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | -25 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 21.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.88%) and 0-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 21.22% | 22.71% | 56.06% |
| Both teams to score 54.52% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.08% | 44.92% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.72% | 67.27% |
| PEC Zwolle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.78% | 35.21% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.03% | 71.97% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.15% | 15.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.96% | 45.04% |
| Score Analysis |
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 5.82% 2-1 @ 5.6% 2-0 @ 3.04% 3-1 @ 1.95% 3-2 @ 1.79% 3-0 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.96% Total : 21.22% | 1-1 @ 10.72% 0-0 @ 5.58% 2-2 @ 5.16% 3-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 0.14% Total : 22.7% | 0-1 @ 10.28% 1-2 @ 9.88% 0-2 @ 9.47% 1-3 @ 6.07% 0-3 @ 5.82% 2-3 @ 3.17% 1-4 @ 2.8% 0-4 @ 2.68% 2-4 @ 1.46% 1-5 @ 1.03% 0-5 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.43% Total : 56.06% |