While NEC have been impressive this term following a promotion, AZ Alkmaar pose a particularly tough test, and we see the hosts falling short of a result.
Jensen's men have been the form side of the division in recent months, and, after a cup defeat, they will be particularly desperate for another league win to extend their run.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 53.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for NEC had a probability of 23.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a NEC win it was 1-0 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
