Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.