Champions League

Champions League | Last 16 | 1st Leg

Feb 23, 2022 at 8pm UK

Estádio da Luz

Benfica
2 - 2
Ajax

(Benfica win 3-2 on aggregate)

Haller (26' og.), Yaremchuk (72')
Nunez (46'), Ramos (49'), Yaremchuk (72')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Tadic (18'), Haller (29')
Mazraoui (23'), Berghuis (45'), Antony (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 51.89%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Ajax
25.62%	22.48%	51.89%

Both teams to score 60.87%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.94%

39.05%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.62%

61.38%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.78%

28.22%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.07%

63.93%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.81%

15.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.18%

43.82%

Score Analysis

Benfica 25.62%

Ajax 51.9%

Draw 22.48%

Benfica	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 6.47% 1-0 @ 5.42% 2-0 @ 3.43% 3-1 @ 2.73% 3-2 @ 2.57% 3-0 @ 1.45% Other @ 3.56% Total : 25.62%	1-1 @ 10.22% 2-2 @ 6.09% 0-0 @ 4.29% 3-3 @ 1.61% Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.48%	1-2 @ 9.63% 0-1 @ 8.08% 0-2 @ 7.61% 1-3 @ 6.05% 0-3 @ 4.78% 2-3 @ 3.83% 1-4 @ 2.85% 0-4 @ 2.25% 2-4 @ 1.8% 1-5 @ 1.07% Other @ 3.94% Total : 51.9%

How you voted: Benfica vs Ajax

Benfica

12.4%

Draw

9.6%

Ajax

78.0%