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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | -32 | 32 |
| 17 | Willem II | 33 | -28 | 30 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | -25 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.46%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Willem II win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 18.59% | 22.22% | 59.19% |
| Both teams to score 51.81% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.31% | 68.69% |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.18% | 38.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.45% | 75.55% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.69% | 15.31% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.95% | 44.05% |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 5.62% 2-1 @ 4.99% 2-0 @ 2.66% 3-1 @ 1.58% 3-2 @ 1.48% Other @ 2.26% Total : 18.59% | 1-1 @ 10.55% 0-0 @ 5.94% 2-2 @ 4.69% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.21% | 0-1 @ 11.15% 0-2 @ 10.46% 1-2 @ 9.9% 0-3 @ 6.55% 1-3 @ 6.2% 0-4 @ 3.07% 2-3 @ 2.93% 1-4 @ 2.91% 2-4 @ 1.38% 0-5 @ 1.15% 1-5 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.4% Total : 59.18% |