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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 81.63%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 6.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.8%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
81.63% | 12.36% | 6.01% |
Both teams to score 43.81% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.77% | 34.23% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.87% | 56.13% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.65% | 6.35% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.15% | 23.86% |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.77% | 53.23% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.21% | 86.79% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
2-0 @ 12.84% 3-0 @ 11.8% 1-0 @ 9.32% 4-0 @ 8.14% 2-1 @ 8.1% 3-1 @ 7.45% 4-1 @ 5.13% 5-0 @ 4.49% 5-1 @ 2.83% 3-2 @ 2.35% 6-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.62% 6-1 @ 1.3% Other @ 4.18% Total : 81.61% | 1-1 @ 5.88% 0-0 @ 3.38% 2-2 @ 2.55% Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.36% | 0-1 @ 2.13% 1-2 @ 1.85% Other @ 2.03% Total : 6.01% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 95 | 17 | 78 | 81 |
2 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 77 | 23 | 54 | 72 |
3 | FC Twente | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 30 | 26 | 60 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 59 | 35 | 24 | 55 |
5 | Ajax | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 48 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 47 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 45 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 42 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 40 |
10 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 36 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 35 |
12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 33 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 32 |
14 | Heracles | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 32 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 44 | 64 | -20 | 25 |
16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 24 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 30 | 74 | -44 | 19 |
18 | Vitesse | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 68 | -46 | 17 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |