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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 33 | -32 | 32 |
| 17 | Willem II | 33 | -28 | 30 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | -25 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 33 | 8 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (8.07%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-0 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Vitesse |
| 28.53% | 25.51% | 45.96% |
| Both teams to score 53.12% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.61% | 50.38% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.67% | 72.32% |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.02% | 31.97% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.57% | 68.43% |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.09% | 21.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.82% | 55.18% |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Vitesse |
| 1-0 @ 7.99% 2-1 @ 6.92% 2-0 @ 4.56% 3-1 @ 2.63% 3-2 @ 2% 3-0 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.72% Total : 28.53% | 1-1 @ 12.12% 0-0 @ 7.01% 2-2 @ 5.25% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 10.63% 1-2 @ 9.21% 0-2 @ 8.07% 1-3 @ 4.66% 0-3 @ 4.09% 2-3 @ 2.66% 1-4 @ 1.77% 0-4 @ 1.55% 2-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.32% Total : 45.95% |