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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 29.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Willem II win was 1-0 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Vitesse |
| 29.21% | 24.72% | 46.07% |
| Both teams to score 56.12% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.34% | 46.66% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.07% | 68.92% |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% | 29.56% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.41% | 65.58% |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.67% | 20.33% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.29% | 52.71% |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | Vitesse |
| 1-0 @ 7.32% 2-1 @ 7.11% 2-0 @ 4.46% 3-1 @ 2.89% 3-2 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 1.81% Other @ 3.31% Total : 29.21% | 1-1 @ 11.66% 0-0 @ 6.01% 2-2 @ 5.66% 3-3 @ 1.22% Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.72% | 0-1 @ 9.57% 1-2 @ 9.29% 0-2 @ 7.63% 1-3 @ 4.94% 0-3 @ 4.05% 2-3 @ 3.01% 1-4 @ 1.97% 0-4 @ 1.61% 2-4 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.07% |