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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a win with a probability of 55.95%. A win for had a probability of 23.9% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.83%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.24%).
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 23.9% | 20.15% | 55.95% |
| Both teams to score 67.59% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.53% | 29.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.45% | 50.55% |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.73% | 24.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.36% | 58.64% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.25% | 10.75% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.27% | 34.73% |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 5.83% 1-0 @ 3.7% 3-2 @ 3.07% 3-1 @ 2.75% 2-0 @ 2.62% 3-0 @ 1.24% 4-2 @ 1.09% 4-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.64% Total : 23.9% | 1-1 @ 8.24% 2-2 @ 6.51% 0-0 @ 2.61% 3-3 @ 2.28% Other @ 0.51% Total : 20.15% | 1-2 @ 9.19% 1-3 @ 6.83% 0-2 @ 6.49% 0-1 @ 5.82% 2-3 @ 4.84% 0-3 @ 4.82% 1-4 @ 3.81% 2-4 @ 2.7% 0-4 @ 2.69% 1-5 @ 1.7% 3-4 @ 1.27% 2-5 @ 1.2% 0-5 @ 1.2% Other @ 3.39% Total : 55.95% |