CONCACAF Nations League | Final

Mar 25, 2024 at 1.15am UK

AT&T Stadium

Mexico
0 - 2
USA

Vasquez (55'), Alvarez (58'), Uriel (63'), Uriel (63'), Gimenez (74'), Gimenez (74')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Adams (45'), Reyna (63', 63')
McKennie (27')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's CONCACAF Nations League clash between USA and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: Panama 0-3 Mexico
Friday, March 22 at 2.15am in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mexico	3	5	6
2	Qatar	3	0	4
3	Honduras	3	-3	4
4	Haiti	3	-2	3

USA

All competitions

CONCACAF Nations League

Last Game: USA 3-1 Jamaica
Thursday, March 21 at 11pm in CONCACAF Nations League

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	USA	3	12	7
2	Jamaica	3	8	7
3	Trinidad and Tobago	3	-6	3
4	Saint Kitts and Nevis	3	-14	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Mexico win was 1-0 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.

Result
Mexico	Draw	USA
34.22% ( -0.21)	25.72% ( 0.02)	40.05% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 54.89% (

-0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.8% (

-0.15)

49.2% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.73% (

-0.13)

71.26% (

0.13)

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.47% (

-0.2)

27.53% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.96% (

-0.26)

63.04% (

0.26)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.74% (

0.03)

24.25% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.39% (

0.05)

58.61% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Mexico 34.23%

USA 40.05%

Draw 25.72%

Mexico	Draw	USA
1-0 @ 8.61% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 5.56% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.38% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.93% Total : 34.23%	1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72%	0-1 @ 9.46% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.7% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.08% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 40.05%