Championship

Championship | Gameweek 43

Apr 18, 2025 at 12.30pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
0 - 1
Luton

Langas (29'), Jackson (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Alli (10')
Morris (38'), Alli (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Derby County and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Portsmouth 2-2 Derby
Saturday, April 12 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Luton 0-1 Blackburn
Saturday, April 12 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.51%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (10.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
40.51% ( -2.49)	28.32% ( 0.77)	31.17% ( 1.71)

Both teams to score 46.09% (

-1.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40% (

-2.19)

60% (

2.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.76% (

-1.7)

80.24% (

1.7)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.97% (

-2.4)

29.03% (

2.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.07% (

-3.07)

64.93% (

3.07)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.94% (

0.12)

35.06% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.19% (

0.12)

71.8% (

-0.13)

Score Analysis

Derby County 40.5%

Luton Town 31.16%

Draw 28.31%

Derby County	Draw	Luton Town
1-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.41) 2-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.41) 3-0 @ 3.21% ( -0.41) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.21) 4-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.2) Other @ 1.61% Total : 40.5%	1-1 @ 13.19% ( 0.25) 0-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.8) 2-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.31%	0-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.88) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.48) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.14% Total : 31.16%