Championship

Championship | Gameweek 22

Dec 20, 2024 at 8pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
2 - 1
Derby

Holmes (89'), Morris (90+2')
Andersen (37')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Jackson (58')
Phillips (41'), Elder (67'), Nelson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Luton Town and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Luton Town

All competitions

Last Game: Blackburn 2-0 Luton
Saturday, December 14 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 4-0 Portsmouth
Friday, December 13 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 47.64%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.

Result
Luton Town	Draw	Derby County
47.64% ( 1.01)	26.1% ( 0.01)	26.25% ( -1.02)

Both teams to score 49.63% (

-0.8)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.87% (

-0.66)

54.13% (

0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.45% (

-0.56)

75.55% (

0.55)

Luton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.27% (

0.18)

22.72% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.6% (

0.26)

56.39% (

-0.27)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.23% (

-1.19)

35.77% (

1.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.46% (

-1.24)

72.54% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Luton Town 47.64%

Derby County 26.25%

Draw 26.1%

Luton Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 12.04% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.92% ( 0.32) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.93% Total : 47.64%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.1%	0-1 @ 8.36% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11) Other @ 1.96% Total : 26.25%