/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fderlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fswalog.png)
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Callum Elder
34'
-
Nathaniel Mendez-Laing
65'
-
Curtis Nelson
88'
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Liam Thompson
90'+1'
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Zan Vipotnik
2'
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Ronald Pereira Martins
14'
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Myles Peart-Harris
73'
Derby County vs Swansea City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
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Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.8%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 26.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
Result
Derby County
47.8%
▼
(-0.50)
Draw
25.58%
▲
(+0.06)
Swansea City
26.62%
▲
(+0.44)
Both Teams to Score:
51.51%
▲
(+0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5
48.17%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 2.5
51.83%
▼
(-0.08)
Over 3.5
26.41%
▲
(+0.07)
Under 3.5
73.59%
▼
(-0.07)
Over 4.5
12.26%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 4.5
87.73%
▼
(-0.05)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5
78.3%
▼
(-0.19)
Under 0.5
21.69%
▲
(+0.19)
Over 1.5
45.15%
▼
(-0.30)
Under 1.5
54.84%
▲
(+0.29)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5
65.78%
▲
(+0.40)
Under 0.5
34.22%
▼
(-0.40)
Over 1.5
29.08%
▲
(+0.43)
Under 1.5
70.92%
▼
(-0.43)
Score analysis
Derby County
47.79%
Draw
25.57%
Swansea City
26.62%
Derby County
1-0
@
11.34%
▼
(-0.10)
2-1 @ 9.3% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 8.67% ▼ (-0.13)
3-1 @ 4.74% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 4.42% ▼ (-0.09)
3-2 @ 2.54% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 1.81% ▼ (-0.03)
4-0 @ 1.69% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 47.79%
2-1 @ 9.3% ▼ (-0.04)
2-0 @ 8.67% ▼ (-0.13)
3-1 @ 4.74% ▼ (-0.05)
3-0 @ 4.42% ▼ (-0.09)
3-2 @ 2.54% ▲ (+0.01)
4-1 @ 1.81% ▼ (-0.03)
4-0 @ 1.69% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 3.3%
Total : 47.79%
Draw
1-1
@
12.16%
▲
(+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.42% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 4.98% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.01%
Total : 25.57%
0-0 @ 7.42% ▼ (-0.03)
2-2 @ 4.98% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 1.01%
Total : 25.57%
Swansea City
0-1
@
7.96%
▲
(+0.07)
1-2 @ 6.52% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 4.27% ▲ (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.04)
0-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 26.62%
1-2 @ 6.52% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 4.27% ▲ (+0.09)
1-3 @ 2.33% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.78% ▲ (+0.04)
0-3 @ 1.53% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 26.62%