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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 67.52%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 12.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 67.52% ( | 19.82% ( | 12.66% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.74% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.66% ( | 47.34% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.44% ( | 69.56% ( |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.96% ( | 13.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.39% ( | 39.61% ( |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.6% ( | 47.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.21% ( | 82.79% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Plymouth Argyle |
| 2-0 @ 12.82% 1-0 @ 12.59% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 8.71% 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 4-0 @ 4.44% 4-1 @ 3.31% 3-2 @ 2.43% 5-0 @ 1.81% 5-1 @ 1.35% 4-2 @ 1.24% Other @ 2.75% Total : 67.51% | 1-1 @ 9.4% 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 2-2 @ 3.57% ( Other @ 0.66% Total : 19.82% | 0-1 @ 4.62% 1-2 @ 3.51% ( 0-2 @ 1.72% Other @ 2.81% Total : 12.66% |