MX23RW : Wednesday, December 4 23:58:47| >> :300:86500:86500:
Blackburn logo
Bristol City
Burnley logo
Cardiff City logo
Coventry City
Derby logo
Hull logo
Leeds logo
Luton Town
Middlesbrough logo
Millwall logo
Norwich logo
Oxford United
Plymouth Argyle
Portsmouth
Preston North End logo
QPR logo
Sheffield United logo
Sheffield Wednesday logo
Stoke logo
Sunderland
Swansea logo
Watford logo
West Brom logo
Stoke logo
Championship | Gameweek 13
Nov 2, 2024 at 12.30pm UK
Britannia Stadium
Derby logo

Stoke
2 - 1
Derby

Cannon (9' pen.), Gibson (82')
Moran (71'), Stevens (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Johansson (68' og.)
Harness (48'), Phillips (54'), Adams (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Southampton 3-2 Stoke
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Hull City
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Stoke City 2-1 Derby County

After putting in a respectable performance against Premier League opposition in the EFL Cup, Stoke should be confident of earning three points at home to Derby. The Rams are winless from six Championship away matches so far, and we do not envisage the visitors breaking that streak in Staffordshire this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stoke City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Stoke City.

Result
Stoke CityDrawDerby County
41.84% (0.219 0.22) 25.45% (0.091000000000001 0.09) 32.71% (-0.315 -0.31)
Both teams to score 55.4% (-0.42 -0.42)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.64% (-0.496 -0.5)48.36% (0.492 0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.5% (-0.457 -0.46)70.5% (0.452 0.45)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.01% (-0.111 -0.11)22.98% (0.106 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.22% (-0.16 -0.16)56.78% (0.153 0.15)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.93% (-0.444 -0.44)28.06% (0.439 0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.28% (-0.564 -0.56)63.72% (0.559 0.56)
Score Analysis
    Stoke City 41.84%
    Derby County 32.71%
    Draw 25.44%
Stoke CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.48% (0.162 0.16)
2-1 @ 8.86% (0.016 0.02)
2-0 @ 6.97% (0.098000000000001 0.1)
3-1 @ 4.34% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 3.42% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.76% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.6% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.26% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.01% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 2.14%
Total : 41.84%
1-1 @ 12.05% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 6.45% (0.13 0.13)
2-2 @ 5.63% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.17% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.44%
0-1 @ 8.2% (0.065999999999999 0.07)
1-2 @ 7.66% (-0.057 -0.06)
0-2 @ 5.21% (-0.023000000000001 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.24% (-0.065 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.39% (-0.055 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.21% (-0.037 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.03% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 32.71%

How you voted: Stoke vs Derby

Stoke City
54.1%
Draw
29.7%
Derby County
16.2%
37
Head to Head
Jul 22, 2023 3pm
Club Friendlies
Derby
3-0
Stoke
Nelson (19'), Collins (26'), Mendez-Laing (41')
Dec 30, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Stoke
1-2
Derby
Ince (78')
Wilmot (16'), Vrancic (61'), Tymon (71')
Plange (16'), Kazim-Richards (85')
Plange (59')
Sep 18, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 8
Derby
2-1
Stoke
Bird (31'), Davies (34')
Shinnie (8'), Sibley (38')
Ince (58')
Sawyers (33'), Skiri Oestigaard (77'), Ince (89')
Mar 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 38
Stoke
1-0
Derby
Brown (74')
Smith (21')

Cresswell (88')
Dec 12, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 18
Derby
0-0
Stoke
Buchanan (48'), Knight (76'), Bielik (90+2')
Cousins (71')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1812422591638
2Burnley1810622361736
3Leeds UnitedLeeds18105331131835
4Sunderland1896326131333
5Middlesbrough1893632211130
6Watford189362624230
7West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom1861021912728
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn178452117428
9Norwich CityNorwich186753527825
10Millwall176742015525
11Bristol City186752421325
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds187472227-525
13Swansea CitySwansea186571817123
14Stoke CityStoke185671922-321
15Derby CountyDerby185582224-220
16Coventry CityCoventry184682427-318
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd184682028-818
18Preston North EndPreston183961725-818
19Luton TownLuton1853102033-1318
20Cardiff CityCardiff184591728-1117
21Plymouth ArgylePlymouth184591838-2017
22Hull City183691726-915
23Queens Park RangersQPR182971526-1115
24Portsmouth162771830-1213


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!