Championship

Championship | Gameweek 13

Nov 2, 2024 at 12.30pm UK

Britannia Stadium

Stoke
2 - 1
Derby

Cannon (9' pen.), Gibson (82')
Moran (71'), Stevens (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Johansson (68' og.)
Harness (48'), Phillips (54'), Adams (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Stoke City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Stoke City

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Southampton 3-2 Stoke
Tuesday, October 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Hull City
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stoke City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Stoke City.

Result
Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
41.84% ( 0.22)	25.45% ( 0.09)	32.71% ( -0.31)

Both teams to score 55.4% (

-0.42)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.64% (

-0.5)

48.36% (

0.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.5% (

-0.46)

70.5% (

0.45)

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.01% (

-0.11)

22.98% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.22% (

-0.16)

56.78% (

0.15)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.93% (

-0.44)

28.06% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.28% (

-0.56)

63.72% (

0.56)

Score Analysis

Stoke City 41.84%

Derby County 32.71%

Draw 25.44%

Stoke City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 9.48% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.84%	1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.44%	0-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.79% Total : 32.71%