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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stoke City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Stoke City.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Derby County |
41.84% ( 0.22) | 25.45% ( 0.09) | 32.71% ( -0.31) |
Both teams to score 55.4% ( -0.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.64% ( -0.5) | 48.36% ( 0.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.5% ( -0.46) | 70.5% ( 0.45) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.01% ( -0.11) | 22.98% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.22% ( -0.16) | 56.78% ( 0.15) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.93% ( -0.44) | 28.06% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.28% ( -0.56) | 63.72% ( 0.56) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.48% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.84% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.79% Total : 32.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 38 |
2 | Burnley | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 35 |
4 | Sunderland | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 33 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
6 | Watford | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 30 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
10 | Millwall | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 25 |
11 | Bristol City | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 17 |
22 | Hull City | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
24 | Portsmouth | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 13 |
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