EFL Cup
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Taylor Harwood-Bellis
19'
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Taylor Harwood-Bellis
19'
-
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
19'
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Taylor Harwood-Bellis
19'
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Adam Armstrong
35'
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Adam Armstrong
35'
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Adam Armstrong
35'
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Junior Tchamadeu
66'
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Adam Armstrong
66'
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James Bree
88'
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Maxwel Cornet
90'+2'
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Ashley Famiwuya
45'
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Ashley Famiwuya
45'
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Ashley Famiwuya
45'
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Tom Cannon
54'
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Tom Cannon
54'
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Tom Cannon
54'
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Adam Armstrong
66'
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Junior Tchamadeu
66'
Southampton vs Stoke City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Result
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Match Preview
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Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 30.27% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
Result
Southampton
45.74%
▲
(+3.69)
Draw
23.99%
▼
(-0.49)
Stoke City
30.27%
▼
(-3.21)
Both Teams to Score:
59.29%
▲
(+0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5
57.22%
▲
(+0.97)
Under 2.5
42.78%
▼
(-0.97)
Over 3.5
34.82%
▲
(+0.95)
Under 3.5
65.18%
▼
(-0.95)
Over 4.5
18.13%
▲
(+0.71)
Under 4.5
81.87%
▼
(-0.71)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5
81.1%
▲
(+2.01)
Under 0.5
18.9%
▼
(-2.01)
Over 1.5
49.61%
▲
(+3.24)
Under 1.5
50.38%
▼
(-3.24)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5
73.11%
▼
(-1.53)
Under 0.5
26.89%
▲
(+1.53)
Over 1.5
37.79%
▼
(-2.05)
Under 1.5
62.2%
▲
(+2.05)
Score analysis
Southampton
45.75%
Draw
23.99%
Stoke City
30.27%
Southampton
2-1
@
9.26%
▲
(+0.36)
1-0 @ 8.47% ▲ (+0.17)
2-0 @ 7.05% ▲ (+0.56)
3-1 @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.50)
3-0 @ 3.92% ▲ (+0.53)
3-2 @ 3.38% ▲ (+0.19)
4-1 @ 2.14% ▲ (+0.33)
4-0 @ 1.63% ▲ (+0.31)
4-2 @ 1.41% ▲ (+0.16)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 45.75%
1-0 @ 8.47% ▲ (+0.17)
2-0 @ 7.05% ▲ (+0.56)
3-1 @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.50)
3-0 @ 3.92% ▲ (+0.53)
3-2 @ 3.38% ▲ (+0.19)
4-1 @ 2.14% ▲ (+0.33)
4-0 @ 1.63% ▲ (+0.31)
4-2 @ 1.41% ▲ (+0.16)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 45.75%
Draw
1-1
@
11.12%
▼
(-0.27)
2-2 @ 6.08% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 5.08% ▼ (-0.22)
3-3 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.99%
2-2 @ 6.08% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 5.08% ▼ (-0.22)
3-3 @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.99%
Stoke City
1-2
@
7.3%
▼
(-0.51)
0-1 @ 6.67% ▼ (-0.60)
0-2 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.61)
1-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.38)
2-3 @ 2.66% ▼ (-0.13)
0-3 @ 1.92% ▼ (-0.37)
1-4 @ 1.05% ▼ (-0.18)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 30.27%
0-1 @ 6.67% ▼ (-0.60)
0-2 @ 4.38% ▼ (-0.61)
1-3 @ 3.2% ▼ (-0.38)
2-3 @ 2.66% ▼ (-0.13)
0-3 @ 1.92% ▼ (-0.37)
1-4 @ 1.05% ▼ (-0.18)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 30.27%
Head to Head
Championship
Gameweek
45
-
Jack Stephens
42'
-
Jack Stephens
42'
-
David Brooks
44'
-
David Brooks
44'
-
Tyrese Campbell
36'
-
Tyrese Campbell
36'
-
Luke Cundle
38'
-
Luke Cundle
38'
Championship
Gameweek
10
-
Ki-Jana Hoever
44'
-
Ben Pearson
45'
-
Daniel Johnson
86'
-
Mehdi Leris
87'
-
Stuart Armstrong
41'
-
Flynn Downes
86'
Premier League
-
Geoff Cameron
41'
Premier League
-
Joe Allen
30'
-
Mame Biram Diouf
40'
-
Peter Crouch
85'
-
Dusan Tadic
52'
-
Oriol Romeu
57'
-
Maya Yoshida
76'
Premier League
-
Sofiane Boufal
70'
-
Jack Stephens
90'
-
Joe Allen
53'
-
Peter Crouch
60'
-
Glenn Whelan
63'
-
Ramadan Sobhi
67'
-
Xherdan Shaqiri
90'
Premier League
-
Marko Arnautovic
23'
-
Joe Allen
34'
-
Oriol Romeu
27'
-
James Ward-Prowse
93'