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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 61.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 1-0 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.37%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Norwich City would win this match.
Result | ||
Norwich City | Draw | Luton Town |
61.13% ( -0.01) | 20.38% ( -0.01) | 18.49% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 57.92% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.76% ( 0.12) | 38.24% ( -0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.48% ( 0.13) | 60.52% ( -0.12) |
Norwich City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.9% ( 0.04) | 12.09% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.36% ( 0.07) | 37.64% ( -0.07) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.89% ( 0.1) | 34.11% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.2% ( 0.11) | 70.8% ( -0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Norwich City | Draw | Luton Town |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 6.97% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.48% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.42% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.45% ( 0) Other @ 4.02% Total : 61.13% | 1-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.38% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.39% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.91% Total : 18.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 16 | 38 |
2 | Burnley | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 6 | 17 | 36 |
3 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 35 |
4 | Sunderland | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 33 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
6 | Watford | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 30 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 18 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 28 |
8 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 28 |
9 | Norwich CityNorwich | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
10 | Millwall | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 25 |
11 | Bristol City | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 25 |
12 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 25 |
13 | Swansea CitySwansea | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 23 |
14 | Stoke CityStoke | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 18 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Luton TownLuton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
20 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
21 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 17 |
22 | Hull City | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
23 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 18 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
24 | Portsmouth | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 30 | -12 | 13 |
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