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EFL Cup

Luton Town
EFL Cup | First Round
Sep 5, 2020 at 3pm UK
Kenilworth Road
Norwich logo

Luton
3 - 1
Norwich

Collins (79' pen., 83', 90+5')
Rea (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Dowell (81')
McCallum (70')

The Match

Match Report

Luton needed a 16-minute spell to score enough goals to get past Norwich.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norwich City win with a probability of 42.33%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Norwich City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.

Result
Luton TownDrawNorwich City
31.62%26.05%42.33%
Both teams to score 53.02%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.73%51.27%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.9%73.1%
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.77%30.23%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.61%66.39%
Norwich City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.99%24.01%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.73%58.27%
Score Analysis
    Luton Town 31.62%
    Norwich City 42.33%
    Draw 26.04%
Luton TownDrawNorwich City
1-0 @ 8.68%
2-1 @ 7.41%
2-0 @ 5.2%
3-1 @ 2.96%
3-2 @ 2.11%
3-0 @ 2.07%
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 31.62%
1-1 @ 12.38%
0-0 @ 7.26%
2-2 @ 5.29%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.04%
0-1 @ 10.35%
1-2 @ 8.84%
0-2 @ 7.39%
1-3 @ 4.2%
0-3 @ 3.51%
2-3 @ 2.51%
1-4 @ 1.5%
0-4 @ 1.25%
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 42.33%