Luton Town and Derby County will do battle at Kenilworth Road on Saturday in a game of major importance at both ends of the Championship table.
With 13 games left to play, the visitors sit eight points adrift of safety, while their hosts are just two points outside of the playoff places.
Match preview
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After a mixed start to the season, Luton Town have found a strong run of results in recent months, earning eight wins and 24 points from their 12 games since the beginning of December.
Nathan Jones's men now head into this weekend's clash with Derby having won five of their last seven second-tier outings, most recently bouncing back from the only defeat in that spell with back-to-back wins.
After falling to a disappointing 3-0 loss against Birmingham City, the Hatters returned to winning ways in style as Cameron Jerome and Allan Campbell got on the scoresheet in a 2-0 defeat of West Bromwich Albion, before making it two straight wins on Wednesday.
Jones took his side to battle with former club Stoke City, and goals from Danny Hylton and Jerome ensured they left with all three points despite Lewis Baker pulling a goal back for the hosts in the dying minutes.
As a result of their eye-catching run, Luton have climbed to eighth spot, and, with sixth-placed Sheffield United just two points ahead, they can give their playoff hopes another huge boost with a third straight victory on Saturday.
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However, Derby County also arrive desperate for a win, albeit for the opposite purpose as they look to strengthen their chances of survival.
Having been dealt a 21-point deduction, Wayne Rooney's side looked all but condemned to relegation, but they have kept themselves in the fight for survival thanks to their inspired performances across the campaign.
The Rams were able to leapfrog Peterborough and move to 22nd spot with a win over the Posh last weekend, but their hopes took a dent on Wednesday, as the Pride Park outfit were defeated 2-1 on home turf by Millwall, with a late Lions own goal not enough for Rooney's men to salvage a result.
That defeat, combined with a victory for Reading, has seen Derby move eight points adrift of safety, and, with only 13 games left to bridge that gap, the Rams will know they require an eye-catching end to the season if they are to defy all odds and steer clear of the drop this term.
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Team News
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Luton Town will likely remain without centre-back Sonny Bradley and midfielders Luke Berry and Jordan Clark, as the trio continue spells in the treatment room.
Jones may opt to deploy an unchanged side after Wednesday's victory, although Cameron Jerome will be vying for a start after his goal off the bench.
Allan Campbell has tended to be an important cog in the centre since his summer arrival, while Danny Hylton will operate further forward in support of an attacking duo.
Derby will be missing winger Kamil Jozwiak due to an injury, while talismanic captain Tom Lawrence will continue to serve a suspension after being shown a straight red card against Peterborough United.
The recent return of midfielder Krystian Bielik from a long-term injury has been a huge one for Rooney, and the former Arsenal man will again partner Max Bird in the engine room.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Steer; Burke, Lockyer, Naismith; Bree, Campbell, Osho, Bell; Hylton; Adebayo, Jerome
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Allsop; Byrne, Davies, Stearman, Forsyth; Bielik, Bird; Ebosele, Knight, Sibley; Plange
We say: Luton Town 2-1 Derby County
While Derby have continuously battled against the odds this season, they meet a Luton side full of confidence, and we do not see them leaving Kenilworth Road with anything on Saturday.
Jones's men are operating at the peak of their powers and, with a laser focus set on the playoff places, they will be gunning for another victory on home turf.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 21.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
