We said: Luton Town 2-1 Derby County
While Derby have continuously battled against the odds this season, they meet a Luton side full of confidence, and we do not see them leaving Kenilworth Road with anything on Saturday.
Jones's men are operating at the peak of their powers and, with a laser focus set on the playoff places, they will be gunning for another victory on home turf.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 21.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.43%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Derby County win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Luton Town in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
