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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 44.49% | 27.42% | 28.1% |
| Both teams to score 47.18% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.06% | 57.94% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.36% | 78.64% |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.08% | 25.92% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.09% | 60.92% |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.68% | 36.32% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.9% | 73.11% |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 1-0 @ 12.71% 2-1 @ 8.69% 2-0 @ 8.58% 3-1 @ 3.91% 3-0 @ 3.86% 3-2 @ 1.98% 4-1 @ 1.32% 4-0 @ 1.3% Other @ 2.13% Total : 44.49% | 1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 9.41% 2-2 @ 4.4% Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.41% | 0-1 @ 9.53% 1-2 @ 6.52% 0-2 @ 4.83% 1-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.63% 2-3 @ 1.49% Other @ 1.9% Total : 28.1% |