Championship

Championship | Gameweek 38

Mar 15, 2025 at 3pm UK

Home Park

Plymouth
2 - 3
Derby

Bundu (38'), Phillips (46' og.)

FT(HT: 1-2)

Harness (11', 88'), Armegang (26')
Phillips (45+5'), Thompson (58'), Adams (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Plymouth Argyle and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Portsmouth 1-2 Plymouth
Wednesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 2-0 Coventry
Tuesday, March 11 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Derby County
33.19% ( -0.07)	26.06% ( 0.03)	40.75% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 53.53% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.15% (

-0.14)

50.85% (

0.14)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.26% (

-0.13)

72.73% (

0.13)

Plymouth Argyle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.02% (

-0.11)

28.98% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.12% (

-0.14)

64.87% (

0.14)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.37% (

-0.04)

24.63% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.86% (

-0.06)

59.14% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Plymouth Argyle 33.19%

Derby County 40.75%

Draw 26.05%

Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 5.48% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 33.19%	1-1 @ 12.38% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.05%	0-1 @ 10% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.68% 0-2 @ 7.01% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.27% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.42% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.66% Total : 40.75%