Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 42.87%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 29.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Bahia
42.87% ( -0.02)	27.38%	29.75% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 48.17% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.9% (

0.01)

57.1% (

-0)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.02% (

0.01)

77.97% (

-0)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.63% (

-0.01)

26.36% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.48% (

-0.01)

61.51% (

0.01)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.42% (

0.02)

34.58% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.7% (

0.02)

71.3% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 42.87%

Bahia 29.75%

Draw 27.37%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Bahia
1-0 @ 12.15% 2-1 @ 8.6% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.6% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.03% 4-1 @ 1.27% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 2.09% Total : 42.87%	1-1 @ 12.9% 0-0 @ 9.12% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.57% ( 0) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.37%	0-1 @ 9.68% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.85% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0) Other @ 2.21% Total : 29.75%