Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 56.49%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.36%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Sao Paulo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
56.49% ( 0.8)	24.58% ( -0.23)	18.93% ( -0.57)

Both teams to score 45.43% (

-0.23)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.76% (

0.16)

55.24% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.53% (

0.13)

76.47% (

-0.14)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.53% (

0.37)

19.47% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.67% (

0.61)

51.33% (

-0.61)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.41% (

-0.55)

43.59% (

0.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.21% (

-0.46)

79.78% (

0.46)

Score Analysis

Sao Paulo 56.48%

Vasco da Gama 18.93%

Draw 24.58%

Sao Paulo	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.88% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 11.36% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.05) Other @ 3.69% Total : 56.48%	1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.64% Total : 24.58%	0-1 @ 7.05% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.76% Total : 18.93%