Copa do Brasil | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Oct 2, 2024 at 11.15pm UK

Arena MRV

Atletico Mineiro
2 - 1
Vasco

(Atletico Mineiro win 3-2 on aggregate)

Arana (38'), Paulinho (44')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Coutinho (14')
Rodriguez (31'), Carvalho (42')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa do Brasil clash between Atletico Mineiro and Vasco da Gama, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Atletico Mineiro
Saturday, September 28 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Vasco da Gama

All competitions

Copa do Brasil

Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-1 Vasco
Sunday, September 29 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Vasco da Gama
57.51% ( 0.19)	23.59% ( -0.07)	18.9% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 48.17% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.45% (

0.12)

51.55% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.65% (

0.11)

73.35% (

-0.11)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.3% (

0.11)

17.7% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.64% (

0.2)

48.36% (

-0.2)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.53% (

-0.06)

41.47% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.03% (

-0.06)

77.97% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Atletico Mineiro 57.5%

Vasco da Gama 18.9%

Draw 23.58%

Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 12.71% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.59% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.52% Total : 57.5%	1-1 @ 11.18% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 23.58%	0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0) Other @ 1.98% Total : 18.9%