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Copa Libertadores

Fluminense
Copa Libertadores | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg
Sep 18, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
Atletico Mineiro

Fluminense
1 - 0
Atletico Mineiro

Lima (87')
Lima (80'), Thiago (90'), Palacios (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Franco (78'), Marcelo (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Fluminense and Atletico Mineiro, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fluminense

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Juventude 2-1 Fluminense
Sunday, September 15 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bahia 3-0 Atletico Mineiro
Sunday, September 15 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Fluminense.

Result
FluminenseDrawAtletico Mineiro
41.01% (0.017000000000003 0.02)27.95% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)31.04% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 47.07% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.24% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)58.76% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.72% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)79.28% (0.019999999999996 0.02)
Fluminense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.85% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)28.15% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.17% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)63.84% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Atletico Mineiro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.51% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)34.5% (0.029000000000003 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.79% (-0.029 -0.03)71.21% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Fluminense 41.01%
    Atletico Mineiro 31.04%
    Draw 27.95%
FluminenseDrawAtletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 12.31% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 8.3%
2-0 @ 7.8% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.51% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 3.3% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 1.87% (-0.002 -0)
4-1 @ 1.11%
4-0 @ 1.05% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.76%
Total : 41.01%
1-1 @ 13.1%
0-0 @ 9.71% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.95%
0-1 @ 10.33%
1-2 @ 6.97% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 5.5% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
1-3 @ 2.47% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-3 @ 1.95% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.57% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.24%
Total : 31.04%

How you voted: Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro

Fluminense
75.0%
Draw
18.8%
Atletico Mineiro
6.3%
32
Head to Head
Aug 25, 2024 1am
Gameweek 24
Atletico Mineiro
0-2
Fluminense

Fuchs (23'), Lyanco (42'), Rubens (63'), Arana (78'), Paulinho (81')
Serna (23'), Arias (59')
Ganso (43'), Martinelli (71'), Menezes (74'), Fabio (90+3')
May 4, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 5
Fluminense
2-2
Atletico Mineiro
Cano (4'), Augusto (61')
Barbosa (12'), Arias (20'), Cano (31'), Melo (43'), Ganso (45+5')
Vargas (73', 79')
Jemerson (45+5'), Paulinho (51')
Oct 29, 2023 1am
Gameweek 30
Atletico Mineiro
2-0
Fluminense
Paulinho (62', 83')
Rubens (52'), Jemerson (59')

Lele (49'), Diniz (50')
Jun 22, 2023 1.30am
Gameweek 11
Fluminense
1-1
Atletico Mineiro
Xavier (45+1')
Diniz (0'), Andre (90+5'), Kennedy (90+8')
Diniz (90+10')
Guga (35' og.)
Hyoran (32'), Felipe Scolari (33'), Battaglia (89'), Arana (90+5'), Hulk (90')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 29
Atletico Mineiro
2-0
Fluminense
Hulk (41', 65' pen.)
rhs 2.0


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