Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Aug 13, 2024 at 11pm UK

Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira

Gremio
2 - 1
Fluminense

(3-3 on aggregate)

Reinaldo (74' pen., 77')
Marchesin (68'), Braithwaite (72')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lima (58')
Ganso (68'), Thiago (72'), Esquerdinha (76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Gremio and Fluminense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio
Saturday, August 10 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Fluminense

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Vasco 2-0 Fluminense
Sunday, August 11 at 1.30am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 22.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
Gremio	Draw	Fluminense
51.02% ( -0.55)	26.18% ( 0.51)	22.81% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 46.18% (

-1.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.02% (

-1.81)

56.98% (

1.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.12% (

-1.47)

77.88% (

1.47)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.58% (

-0.99)

22.42% (

0.99)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.05% (

-1.5)

55.95% (

1.5)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.52% (

-0.99)

40.48% (

0.99)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.92% (

-0.91)

77.08% (

0.9)

Score Analysis

Gremio 51%

Fluminense 22.81%

Draw 26.17%

Gremio	Draw	Fluminense
1-0 @ 13.56% ( 0.53) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 5.06% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.57% ( -0.22) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.16) 4-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.84% Total : 51%	1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 9.08% ( 0.61) 2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.68% Total : 26.17%	0-1 @ 8.21% ( 0.34) 1-2 @ 5.55% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.29% Total : 22.81%