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Leverkusen logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 20
Feb 6, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
BayArena
Stuttgart

B. Leverkusen
5 - 2
Stuttgart

Demirbay (18', 31'), Bailey (56'), Wirtz (68'), Gray (84')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kalajdzic (50', 77')

Preview: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Stuttgart - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Stuttgart, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayer Leverkusen take on Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Friday, with the hosts looking to bounce back after three successive defeats in all competitions.

Stuttgart, meanwhile, can move into the top half of the table with a victory.


Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen coach Peter Bosz before the match on January 23, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, after looking like challenging Bayern Munich for the title prior to the winter break, Leverkusen have dramatically fallen away in recent weeks.

Leverkusen were second best in the 1-0 defeat to RB Leipzig last weekend, although Florian Wirtz and Lucas Alario both significantly tested Peter Gulasci from close range either side of half time.

Leipzig could have scored more goals themselves, though, with Marcel Sabitzer's opener disallowed for offside and the midfielder striking the bar from distance late on. The winner came via Christopher Nkunku's brilliant touch and strike past Lukas Hradecky, with Alexander Sorloth hitting the post moments later.

Things went from bad to worse for Leverkusen in midweek with an embarrassing 2-1 defeat to Rot-Weiss Essen in the DFB-Pokal after extra time. The fourth-tier side held Bosz's side to a goalless draw after normal time, with Leon Bailey's strike moments before the half-time interval of extra time looking like sinking RWE's hearts.

However, Oguzhan Kefkir and Simon Engelmann both struck to produce a historically incredible comeback and victory, with Leverkusen's morale now surely at an all-time low heading into the game against Stuttgart on Saturday.

 VfB Stuttgart coach Pellegrino Matarazzo pictured on January 16, 2021© Reuters

Stuttgart, meanwhile, were buoyed by finally recording their first home win of the season with a comfortable 2-0 victory over struggling Mainz 05.

An interesting but goalless first half burst into the life after the break, with Borna Sosa's gorgeous cross headed home by Sasa Kalajdzic to open the scoring. Silas Wamangituka highlighted his phenomenal quality to seal a crucial three points for Stuttgart, running from his own penalty area before cutting inside Mainz's half-hearted defenders and firing into the near post.

Wamangituka was at it again in midweek by scoring after only two minutes in the DFB-Pokal third round home tie against Borussia Monchengladbach, but strikes from Marcus Thuram and Alassane Plea either side of half time saw Stuttgart disappointingly crash out of the competition.

However, given that Pellegrino Matarazzo's side have won half of their 10 away matches this season, they will have every confidence of pouring further misery on Leverkusen on Sunday, and they may look to blitz them from the outset.

Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: LDLWLL
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WLWLLL

Stuttgart Bundesliga form: LWDLLW
Stuttgart form (all competitions): WDLLW


Team News

Stuttgart's Gonzalo Castro celebrates with teammates after scoring against Eintracht Frankfurt on November 7, 2020© Reuters

Leverkusen's woes have been condemned by the possibility of missing Leon Bailey, Moussa Diaby and Nadiem Amiri through illness against Stuttgart.

Lars Bender, Julian Baumgartlinger, Mitchell Weiser, Sven Bender, Santiago Arias and Paulinho will all definitely miss out through injury, with Bosz's options rapidly diminishing.

Stuttgart, meanwhile, suffered the blow of losing Gonzalo Castro to a hamstring injury in the win over Mainz, with the midfielder likely to miss the rest of February.

Clinton Mola, Lilian Egloff and Hamadi Al Ghaddioui remain sidelined.

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Fosu-Mensah, Tah, Tapsoba, Wendell; Sinkgraven, Demirbay, Aranguiz; Bellarabi, Alario, Wirtz

Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Coulibaly, Endo, Mangala, Sosa; Wamangituka, Gonzalez; Kalajdzic


SM words green background

We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-3 Stuttgart

With Leverkusen potentially missing a whole host of first-team options, we can envisage Stuttgart blowing the hosts away.

The absence of Castro will be a blow, but the likes of Wamangituka and Nicolas Gonzalez could be too hot for Leverkusen to handle in their current crisis of confidence.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Stuttgart had a probability of 32.03% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.77%) and 3-1 (5.64%). The likeliest Stuttgart win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.


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Bayer Leverkusen players celebrate Moussa Diaby's goal against Borussia Dortmund on January 19, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen31256077225581
2Bayern MunichBayern31223689385169
3Stuttgart31204770383264
4RB Leipzig31195773353862
5Borussia DortmundDortmund31169659392057
6Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt31111284742545
7Freiburg31117134355-1240
8Augsburg31109124852-439
9Hoffenheim31116145563-839
10Heidenheim31910124452-837
11Werder Bremen31107144150-937
12Wolfsburg3197153751-1434
13Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach31711135360-732
14Union BerlinUnion Berlin3186172650-2430
15VfL BochumVfL Bochum31612133762-2530
16Mainz 05Mainz31513133249-1728
17FC Koln31411162454-3023
RSV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt3138203073-4317


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