World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Mar 20, 2025 at 11pm UK

Estadio Manuel Ferreira

Paraguay
1 - 0
Chile

Alderete (60', 60')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Paraguay and Chile, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Paraguay

All competitions

Last Game: Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay
Tuesday, November 19 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Chile 6-1 Panama
Saturday, February 8 at 11.30pm in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	12	14	25
2	Ecuador	12	7	22
3	Uruguay	12	8	20
4	Colombia	12	5	19
5	Brazil	12	6	18
6	Paraguay	12	1	17
7	Bolivia	12	-14	13
8	Venezuela	12	-4	12
9	Chile	12	-11	9
10	Peru	12	-12	7

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 45.02%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Chile had a probability of 26.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.05%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Paraguay in this match.

Result
Paraguay	Draw	Chile
45.02% ( 1.62)	28.86% ( -0.06)	26.12% ( -1.55)

Both teams to score 42.15% (

-0.79)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.34% (

-0.5)

63.67% (

0.5)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.05% (

-0.36)

82.95% (

0.36)

Paraguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.67% (

0.63)

28.33% (

-0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.93% (

0.78)

64.07% (

-0.78)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.81% (

-1.63)

41.19% (

1.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.28% (

-1.48)

77.72% (

1.48)

Score Analysis

Paraguay 45.01%

Chile 26.12%

Draw 28.86%

Paraguay	Draw	Chile
1-0 @ 14.71% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.48) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.27) 3-1 @ 3.46% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 1.09% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.57% Total : 45.01%	1-1 @ 13.05% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 11.67% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.49% Total : 28.86%	0-1 @ 10.35% ( -0.27) 1-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.32) 0-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.34) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.24% Total : 26.12%